Marianne Paire, 18.11.2025

Marianne Paire has been a visiting fellow at the ICDS since October 2024. Before her current position, she worked at the Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy of the French Ministry for Armed Forces. There, she was involved in strengthening European defence and enhancing bilateral relations between France and the Nordic-Baltic countries. Previously, she worked at the Joint Staff.

At the MoD, she was working on enhancing the French bilateral cooperation with the three Baltic states but also on European defence initiatives in which Estonia was a real driving force (European Intervention Initiative and Task Force Takuba)

Firstly, the strategic environment has become more complex since the mid-2010s.

We have seen the end of some long-held beliefs and the rise of new challenge:

• Return to competition and confrontation 
• Succession and acceleration of crisis
• erosion of security architecture(Disarmament nuclear deterrence no longer reliably preventing war)
• the growing use of technologies (cyber, drones and AI)
• Rising of “hybrid threats” (information warfare, sabotages in Europe e.g. cutting cables in the Baltic Sea region)
• climate change (catalyst for chaos),
• terrorism still a significant threat (10th anniversary of the ISIS attacks in Paris, and next year will mark another ISIS attack in Nice, where two Estonian citizens died)

We can say that for Europeans utopias are being shaken, particularly because the USis turning away from some of our interests.

Recommendation: the National Strategic Review, a French perspective, but good to read because it conveys a European vision.

The beginning of the bilateral relationship illustrates the different visions of geography and history. Estonia’s goal was to be closer to the US and address the threat from Russia. After Estonia joined the EU after 2008, France rejoined the integrated command of NATO, which it had left in the 1960s, ties became closer between the two countries. Strategic dialogue became important for understanding each other, which had not always been the case. Estonia already in 2014 warned and made significant investments in security in order to deter Russia. France such as other Western European countries, did not think the same way and now recognises that we should have listened more to our partners in the East (President Macron’s speech in Bratislava in 2023). But since 2017 and the first deployment in the framework of NATO enhanced Forward Presence French deployments focused on Estonia. Now France is deeply involved on the Eastern flank.

I encourage you to read work by IFRI, which shows France’s participation onNATO’s eastern flank. As mentioned earlier, France’s main focus was Islamist terrorism, and in 2015 Estonia responded to France’s request for assistance (activation of article 42.7 from EU Treaty) and reinforced its participation in the EU training mission in Mali. After that, Estonia was the first country to deploy boots on the ground within the French led operation Barkhane in 2018. Two years later,  Estonia even reinforced its presence in Mali, participation to the special forces mission (task force Takuba). The authorities on both sides communicate a lot and at all levels. The degree of cooperation is really high. One of the tools to make the strategic culture converge was also the participation in the European Intervention Initiative (launched in 2018 and mentioned in Macron’s speech at the Sorbonne in 2017). The aim of EI2 is to strengthen European strategic culture and create the conditions for potential future joint military engagements between Europeans. This is a flexible format in order to mobilise partners that are able and willing, and quicker than within the EU or NATO;  

Summary: the relationship has developed over more than 10 years and is strong. Estonia supports stronger European defence initiatives. During the Estonian Presidency of the Council in 2017, this was also visible (launching of Permanent Structured Cooperation). France has invested a lot in NATO. For the first time in 20 years, French strategic documents explicitly state that Russia is a threat. It seems that now on many issues France and Estonia share the same views and want to act together to strengthen the security of the European continent. 

How could we push strategic coordination further? Through NATO first, by anticipating as best as we can the potential reduction of US troops and capacities in Europe (Europeanisation of command and control structures but also developing strategic enablers such as intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities).

One pragmatic example concerns the cooperation between NATO and the EU. Developing the defence industry is a key factor in keeping our sovereignty safe, reducing our dependence on partners and foreign supply chains that can be shut down.

The EU, thanks to its financial power, can boost the European defence industry, by encouraging member states to produceJoint capabilities and to develop innovation.

The US is turning away from Europe. The message is quite clear. This was already clear in 2008 with Obama’s pivot to Asia but we can go back even further, Kennedy and Eisenhower. We are not talking anymore about burden-sharing but burden-shifting.

We need Europeans to be ready in this volatile and unpredictable environment. The withdrawal from a US brigade in Romania was not clearly announced. Of course at a continental scale this is not a big deal, but , but who is to say it could not be the same elsewhere. They remain unpredictable now.

We must strengthen our strategic culture. There are many multilateral formats and regional cooperation mechanisms such as NB8 (Nordic-Baltic eight). Strengthening cooperation among like-minded countries is important, particularly regarding support for Ukraine, but also development of certain types of capabilities, and going on military operation.A good example is the UK and France led coalition of the willing which aims at launching an operation with personnels in Ukraine after the ceasefire. Thirty-two nations have shown interest, 26 in participating in the operational pillar. The signal is that Europeans can act together and be credible. 

We must prepare European military apparatus but also the societies. Individuals must understand their role in war. The concept of comprehensive defence is well developed here, and others, including France, should take example on its level of preparedness.

In conclusion, a few important quotes:

Quote from Macron: “To be free in this world, you must be feared and to be feared, you must be powerful.”

General Douglas MacArthur described defeat in two words: “Too late.”

Questions

As France takes a bigger role in Europe, could there be a risk that society begins to feel, as in the US, that the country is doing too much abroad?
The political situation in France is complicated, with the rise of the far right and populists. However, polls show very strong support for Ukraine. Parties see that they cannot go against public opinion. They are even changing their narratives to align more closely with those of the EU. They understand that the future of the continent, especially the East, is very important.

What about other regions?
The situation in Mali is very difficult. Terrorist groups blocking Bamako, the junta helped with Africa Corps (formerly known as Wagner) is unable to stop them. There is a fear of the terrorists spreading further and destabilizing the region. I am not saying things were better during the French or European-led missions. The situation is even more unstable now, and this could affect Europe with terrorist attempts. French intelligence services predict more terrorist attacks in Europe if the state in Mali falls and the armed terrorist groups take power. If Mali falls, it could be a domino effect in the neighbouring countries Europeans should monitor and potentially be prepared to act if some Sahelian countries ask for help; because security of Europe is at stake also on its southern flank.

Should France do more in Africa?
French forces were pushed out. African countries wanted more sovereignty. The Malian authorities previously requested help when terrorist groups attacked in 2013. If France acted again, it would need to be based on such a request. France should not operate alone and action should be taken at the European level. There is also a significant threat from Russia. If African countries need help, we should help and be able to both deter Russia and help African countries, but this is not something that can be openly discussed at the moment.

The situation across Africa is very bad, Madagascar, Mali, Sudan. What should Western countries do to stop Islamic terrorist acts and counter the perception that Europeans are “bad”?
Our values are not always seen as the best. Many countries challenge the international order built after 1945. We are trying to promote a narrative that fits countries that oppose this order. The US has reduced its presence in Africa, so responsibility increasingly falls to Europeans. China is building infrastructure that is presented as local development but primarily serves its own interests. We need to communicate better and push our narratives more effectively. It is a blunt answer, but currently we are stuck, because many countries do not want to hear about European values. We need to strengthen our defence and be a power in every field, including narratives, and believe more in ourselves. At the moment, we are not doing enough.

What needs to be developed, societal, industrial or something else?
We are dependent on the US in many areas, including satellite capabilities. The European Commission’s white paper on readiness published last spring highlighted several capabilities we need, such as innovation, space, cyber and air defence. To make NATO more European, we need to focus on these areas. The Americans currently provide the majority of strategic enablers including strategic airlift. We are not able to move troops efficiently across Europe. Railways make it very difficult and it can take 60 days to move forces. We need to have strategic aircraft but also work on military mobility. Satellites and telecommunications are also essential. Measures are being implemented, but we are still far behind. There are many priorities and we need to follow the innovation cycle. We cannot act alone and this delays progress. We need to act quickly.

There is urgency due to the Russian threat. In a few years, NATO could face a major test, and if the US is not helping, we must do it ourselves. The picture is not very encouraging. We need as Europeans to do more.

Are the tensions between the US and Venezuela a concern for France?
In the Caribbean, we have issues with drug trafficking, but not on the scale the US faces. Regarding Venezuela, The US wants to reaffirm its power. They aim to obtain oil from Venezuela and raw materials from Greenland, so the concern for France is more about the respect of international law from the US. 

When the US tells the EU what to do, they often tell us how to do it. Does this come with conditions for the EU?
This is a paradox. Europe is the most important market. The US says it will reduce its presence in Europe, but still expects the market to remain open. In a highly intensive war, we must have our own armaments and equipment. US officials in Europe have said that China is more important than Europe. This affects exports and creates contradictions. Building a European defence is not against the US and they need to understand this. The US said that they cannot be fully present on two fronts so.we need to be deterrent as Europeans.  Europeans must be able to act by themselves and communicate more with the US to tell them that we are also acting for them, in order to share the burden.

Why was the French ministry renamed the Ministry of Armed Forces in 2017?
This is my personal opinion, because it was not clearly explained to the public. Power is concentrated in the presidency and defence is directed from the Élysée Palace. To me, it signals that the minister mainly implements directives from the president. The internal structure did not change.

The fight against disinformation in France
Russian activity has been very strong. This is now openly acknowledged at government level. A dedicated office was created to detect disinformation (Viginum). The Israel-Gaza conflict is a hot topic in France and there has been manipulation of information, including antisemitic sentiments pushed by Russian actors. We need to build a more resilient society. Authorities are working to increase public awareness.

European defence equipment production. There was the signature of a LoI between France and Ukraine on 100 Rafale fighter jets, would then be delivered quickly to Ukraine? Or are they bottlenecks?
There is a bottleneck. Not many fighters can be built in a month. These letters of intent are signals of long-term contracts and cooperation. The challenge is the production cycle. For now, it would be difficult for Ukraine to buy them because they lack the funds. France is also facing budget constraints.

We focus a lot on defence and defence capabilities. Could this become a trap where we neglect other abilities, such as representing our interests globally? What about soft power?
We need to invest more widely. Europe is not in great economic shape. At the same time, we have large countries and this must be considered. We should try to invest across all fields. Defence investments are for the future. But we are not investing enough in climate change and social issues. It is difficult, but necessary. Europe’s model, following trade laws and providing stability, is a form of soft power and could work. We could be attractive to other countries in the world with this aspect. But anyway there must be priorities, and for now the priority  is defence, but we must maintain other domains as well.

Some French citizens are reportedly against Germany becoming stronger in defence.
There are jokes and memes about Germany’s increased defence spending (because of the history between France and Germany), but it is actually good if Germany becomes stronger. It enables building capabilities together and is positive for Europe.