Igor Gretskiy, 18.03.2025
Ukraine among Russians is not perceived as a sovereign state, it is something that became independent and needs to be reincorporated. Putin views it important to talk with the USA and decide on the fate of Europe. This is something inherited from the Soviet Union. When the United States decided to invade Iraq, Putin dreamt of the European Moscow-Berlin-Paris axis against America. This came up when said European powers were apprehensive to join the US mission to Iraq.
Lavrov’s recent document is not only about Ukraine, it is about establishing a sphere of influence over Central and Eastern Europe, Ukraine was meant to be just the first step. Another sign was to test the borders of the Baltic States through hybrid means, such as GPS-jamming.
Ukraine has already won this war, simply for the fact that they have managed to preserve the Ukrainian state. They have managed to consolidate their society through a very powerful civil society. Volunteers and veterans will play a pivotal role in the coming Ukrainian elections. Another very important player is the army. Russia aims to destroy and shake the state, society and the army.
Ukraine has a much more powerful army, a much stronger military-industrial complex than they did three years ago. Until Trump’s election, the US was in favor of Ukrainian support. Biden is criticised for being too careful and not doing enough, yet the US still played a very important role.
Trump aims to portray himself as a mediator. Trump positions himself between Kyiv and Moscow. He doesn’t care about the price Ukrainians paid, he wants for the war to be over. For this, he is putting pressure on both Moscow and Kyiv, leveraging the arms support for Kyiv.
Thus far, he has pressured and demonstrated his power over Kyiv, but hasn’t pressured Moscow. This has been noticed by the Kremlin and Putin’s strategy is to persuade Trump into continuing to pressure Kyiv. He is playing for Kyiv to give Trump a negative answer.
Russia views it as Europe’s weakness that they value human life more than Moscow, thus being apprehensive to send forces to Ukraine. Putin also views democracy as a weakness. They have effectively pushed and played on societal divides in Europe. He also uses the low threat perception in Western Europe as something that favors him.
Putin can sit comfortably. He will foment tensions in the West and try to downplay certain elements, such as European forces in Ukraine and Ukrainian state retaining the form it currently exists in. He also understands that Trump’s honeymoon with the electorate is over, the only thing that the electorate is currently satisfied with is migration.
Trump perceives Europe not as a partner, but as a competitor. He does not perceive horizontal relations to be possible.
Voices in Russia have sought to strike a deal with Trump, for republicans will lose their support in congress at one point. Trump would turn his attention to domestic affairs, when he understands he will not get anything in Ukraine PR-wise, the chance will be lost. They say Russia should forfeit Zaporizhia and cling on to Donetsk and Luhansk instead. Secondly, to retain the position of the Russian Orthodox Church. The orthodox church wants to restore its monopoly they lost at the fall of the Soviet Union, thus they are seeking support from the Kremlin. They need Ukraine to constitutionally guarantee the status of the Orthodox Church. Thirdly they want a certain region to be declared autonomous to continue eating away at Ukraine. They want to set a precedent for any territory to continue undermining the Ukrainian state. Putin listens carefully to these voices, but believes that the West is not consolidated enough and Trump is pressable. Trump is viewed as an enormous foreign policy asset by the russians. The strategy would be to continue persuading Trump not to pressure Moscow, but Kyiv.
Poland will have the biggest army in Europe very very soon, but the Polish government doesn’t want to play these games. They have a clear understanding of the seriousness of this threat. Poland is trying to invite as many American soldiers to incentivise the West and the US to be more engaged in European affairs.
When justice and protection are not met, people turn to the mafia, for the mafia can guarantee these things when the government cannot.
It is impossible to become a member of Russia’s vertical of power if you are not corrupt. If you are corrupt, you are under control. If you’re not corrupt, you’re a threat.
